By Horncurrent Analysis Desk
October 2025 – Horn of Africa
Reliable sources have informed Horncurrent that Somalia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ali Omar (commonly known as Ali Balcad), is reportedly heading to Addis Ababa for undisclosed diplomatic talks with Ethiopian federal officials.
According to a close source familiar with the minister’s mission, the discussions are expected to revolve around the status of the Gedo Zone, a border region that has long been a focal point of tension between Somalia’s Jubaland administration, the federal government, and Ethiopia’s regional presence.
The same source claimed that Ali Omar intends to push for the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Gedo and possibly facilitate arrangements that would allow Somali and Egyptian cooperation in the area. The move, if confirmed, could mark a continuation of Egypt’s growing engagement in the Horn of Africa, particularly its efforts to counterbalance Ethiopia’s influence following disputes over the Nile waters and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
A Potential Flashpoint in Regional Diplomacy
Analysts say that any talks involving Gedo or Jubaland’s security architecture are highly sensitive, as they directly touch upon Ethiopia’s strategic interests in Somalia and the broader Horn of Africa power dynamics.
Ethiopia has maintained a military presence in several parts of Somalia under both bilateral security agreements and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Any shift in this arrangement—especially one involving external powers such as Egypt—could reshape regional alliances and reignite old rivalries.
Political Motives and Public Perception
Ali Omar, a prominent figure in Mogadishu’s foreign policy circles, has often been perceived as critical of Ethiopia’s regional policies. His reported trip to Addis Ababa has sparked speculation that Mogadishu may be seeking to recalibrate its relationship with Ethiopia, though the intentions remain unclear.
Ethiopia’s Likely Position
For Ethiopia, any discussion involving Gedo Zone or Jubaland touches on national security and territorial integrity concerns. The Ethiopian government has repeatedly expressed its commitment to respecting Somalia’s sovereignty while also ensuring its own border security and regional stability.
Analysts suggest that Addis Ababa will approach any such talks cautiously, mindful of Egypt’s strategic ambitions in the region and its ongoing political tension with Ethiopia over the Nile issue.
The coming days will reveal whether this diplomatic visit leads to constructive dialogue or deepens existing suspicions between neighboring countries in an already volatile region.
