By HornCurrent Analysis Desk
The recent turmoil in Ethiopia’s Somali Region has sparked growing concerns that external actors, particularly Egypt, are seeking to exploit local fragilities for broader geopolitical gains.
Egypt’s Strategic Calculations
Cairo’s interest in the Horn of Africa is neither new nor hidden. For decades, Egypt has viewed the Nile Basin and the wider Horn as central to its national security, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The completion of the GERD has heightened Egypt’s fears over water security, pushing it to expand its political and intelligence footprint in Ethiopia and Somalia.
Reliable sources indicate that Egyptian officials are actively seeking to establish influence networks in the Somali Region of Ethiopia, a territory of strategic importance due to its shared border with Somalia and proximity to natural gas reserves. Cairo’s approach reportedly centers on cultivating local political figures who could serve as conduits for instability inside Ethiopia.
Cairo’s Cultural Narrative Strategy
An independent international journalist who recently visited Jigjiga told HornCurrent.com that he received leaked information suggesting Egyptian-backed initiatives aimed at reshaping Somali perceptions of Egypt. According to him, some Somali Region officials had floated the idea of producing a documentary that would highlight historic Somali figures such as Sayid Mohamed Abdille Hassan and Ahmed Gurey, linking them symbolically to Egyptian struggles.
The underlying intention, the journalist explained, was to frame Egypt as a “long-standing brother and ally” of the Somali people in Ethiopia. However, disagreements emerged between the journalist and regional officials, leaving the project unfinished. It remains unclear whether the idea was later taken up by other actors or abandoned altogether.
The Somali Region Connection
Parallel to these cultural overtures, political restructuring in the Somali Region has raised questions about external manipulation. Investigations suggest a possible link between Cairo’s interests and recent unrest in key zones such as Korahe, Afder, and Shabelle. These areas are not only sensitive border regions but also rich in natural gas deposits, making them valuable for anyone aiming to exert long-term influence in Ethiopia.
Reports point to an observable rise in localized violence, clan disputes, and administrative instability in these zones, developments that analysts suspect could be tied to Egyptian-backed destabilization efforts. The objective, critics argue, is to weaken Ethiopia from within, using the Somali Region as an entry point for broader regional disruption.
Looking Ahead
While conclusive evidence remains under investigation, the pattern emerging from Cairo to Mogadishu and Jigjiga suggests a deliberate strategy: to undermine Ethiopia’s internal cohesion at a moment when the GERD shifts the balance of Nile politics.
If the suspected projects, cultural, political, and security-related, continue unchecked, the Somali Region could become the epicenter of a wider proxy struggle between Ethiopia and Egypt. Such a development would carry dangerous consequences not only for Ethiopia’s stability but for the Horn of Africa as a whole.
HornCurrent will continue to investigate and provide updates as more information emerges from our independent inquiry into this evolving story.
