The Somali Region enters this week under a tightening climate stress pattern, with the performance of the current season continuing to fall below expectations. The most recent climate observations, rangeland assessments and hydrological readings indicate that drought risk is intensifying across the region’s eleven zones, with particular pressure in the southern and eastern pastoral districts.
The zones facing the highest risk this week remain Afder, Liban, Doolo and the southern parts of Korahe. These areas experienced weak rainfall during the early part of the season and have since seen prolonged dry intervals that have prevented meaningful soil-moisture accumulation. Pastoral communities in these zones are reporting early depletion of traditional water points, reduced grazing availability and increased livestock movement in search of water. Herd mobility across Afder and Doolo is rising sharply, signalling diminished local options for sustaining rangeland access. In Liban and Korahe, vegetation greenness is visibly declining, and the number of households relying on emergency water trucking is increasing.
Secondary alert zones include Shabelle, Jarar, Nogob and parts of Dawa. While these zones have received slightly better rainfall, the improvement remains insufficient to sustain long-term grazing and water conditions. The more central and northern zones of Fafan, Sitti and Erer show moderately improved vegetation signals compared to the southern belt but remain vulnerable due to dependence on short and inconsistent rainfall pulses.
Rainfall anomaly measurements for the past thirty to ninety days show a clear deficit pattern across the Somali Region. Seasonal totals remain well below the long-term average, and the distribution of rain has been erratic and spatially limited. The short-range climate outlook for the coming week anticipates limited showers that are unlikely to reverse the prevailing moisture deficit. Forecast models further indicate that surface temperatures will remain higher than seasonal norms, increasing evapotranspiration and reducing the effectiveness of any isolated rainfall that may occur. As a result, soil-moisture retention remains low, and rangeland renewal is restricted.
Rangeland and water conditions continue to reflect the underlying climate pressure. Satellite-based vegetation indices show thinning grass cover, reduced biomass and stagnated regeneration across Afder, Liban, Doolo and Korahe. Water-point monitoring teams report falling groundwater levels across multiple woredas in these high-risk zones. Several shallow wells are nearing exhaustion, while boreholes are experiencing heightened pressure as demand increases. In Shabelle and Jarar, livestock are beginning to cluster around limited functioning water sources, increasing localised stress on grazing fields. Reports from pastoral households also indicate declining livestock body condition and reduced milk production.
Early-warning bulletins released this week reinforce the need for heightened vigilance. National and regional advisory systems classify the Somali Region as entering a period of elevated drought-risk, with specific warnings for the southern rangelands. Humanitarian agencies have also noted a rise in early alerts from communities experiencing water shortages and rapidly deteriorating pasture quality.
Taken together, the indicators show a region moving deeper into climate-driven vulnerability. The weeks ahead will require intensified field monitoring, rapid repair and support for water infrastructure, targeted fodder distribution and strengthened coordination across the eleven zones. Without timely early-action measures, the southern and eastern pastoral systems risk entering a more severe drought phase that could have significant humanitarian implications across Ethiopia’s Somali Region.
W/B: Green-light Advisors Group
Office of the Prime Minister-Ethiopia Xafiiska Maaliyada DDS – SRS Bureau of Finance Xafiiska Horumarinta Xoolo-dhaqatada DDS
