The October to December rainy season, known as the Deyr, continues to unfold under the weight of uncertainty across Ethiopia’s Somali Region. Meteorological data and hydrological indicators are painting a consistent picture of below-average rainfall, rising surface temperatures, and deteriorating rangeland conditions. The convergence of these climatic stressors calls for renewed vigilance and decisive early action before hardship deepens into crisis.
The Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazard Outlook for this week highlights continued dryness across southern and southeastern Ethiopia. The cumulative rainfall totals remain significantly below the long-term seasonal averages. Satellite imagery and ground-based observations confirm that the region’s southern and eastern zones have experienced prolonged deficits, with very few localized showers insufficient to replenish soil moisture. The 90-day rainfall anomaly maps show an extensive arc of deficiency stretching from the Shabelle Basin near Gode through Doolo, Afder, Liban, and Korahe. Temperatures across these zones remain above the historical mean, creating a high rate of evaporation and reducing the efficiency of any rainfall that does occur.
The latest weekly forecast by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre adds to the concern. It anticipates little or no substantial rainfall for the remainder of October and early November. Warmer-than-normal air masses continue to dominate the atmosphere over southern Ethiopia, suppressing cloud formation and inhibiting the vertical movement needed for meaningful precipitation. This pattern, shaped by oceanic temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean and Pacific systems, is characteristic of the prolonged drought cycles that have periodically afflicted the Horn of Africa.
The zones facing the highest levels of drought risk remain Afder, Liban, Doolo, Korahe, and Shabelle. These districts have endured multiple poor seasons, leaving households with minimal resilience. Rangelands are losing their vegetative cover, and the spectral indices derived from satellite data show clear declines in greenness across the southern belt. Jarar and Nogob are moderately affected but trending downward, while Fafan and Sitti have received slightly better rainfall, though not enough to restore normal conditions.
Water point assessments conducted by local authorities and humanitarian agencies show a rapid drop in groundwater levels. Many shallow wells around Filtu, Warder, and Kebri Dehar have reached critical depletion levels. Boreholes in the affected areas are overstretched and often suffer mechanical failures due to excessive use. The scarcity of water is forcing pastoralists to travel long distances, weakening livestock and raising the risk of market collapse as animals lose condition.
Vegetation health data align with field observations indicating the drying of grazing fields and the early onset of pasture shortages. Livestock migration patterns suggest distress movement toward the relatively better-watered areas near the Shabelle River, which may increase competition for limited resources. Unless rainfall improves substantially in the next two to three weeks, these areas could experience severe livestock losses and rising food insecurity.
Preparedness measures must therefore accelerate. Water trucking should be expanded to the most affected woredas, and urgent rehabilitation of existing boreholes must take priority. Fodder support programs should focus on Korahe, Liban, and Doolo, where herders are already resorting to feeding crop residues to sustain weakened herds. Real-time reporting of rangeland and water conditions should be strengthened to guide interventions.
The week concludes with a clear scientific warning wrapped in calm urgency. The Somali Region stands at the edge of another challenging dry spell that could deepen existing vulnerabilities. The atmospheric patterns show little sign of reversal, and the evidence calls for immediate anticipatory action. The World Food Programme’s drought anticipatory activation for fifteen woredas across the region remains one of the most strategic responses in motion. It must receive full financial support and timely execution to translate forecasts into protection, early action, and resilience for the people who live closest to the frontlines of climate hardship.
Weekly Report by Green Light Advisors Group.
U.S. Embassy Addis Ababa, UNICEF Ethiopia, Addis Standard, The Reporter, IGAD Secretariat, World Food Programme Office of the Prime Minister-Ethiopia Journal of Food Stability
