August 19, 2025
By Abdirezak Sahane Elmi – Former Government Official & Political Analyst
In recent weeks, the Ethiopian media space has been filled with celebratory commentaries about a supposed “national convergence” against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. These writings, mostly circulated on platforms like Addis Standard, Ethiopian Insight, and The Reporter, have been endorsed by a handful of Oromo elites who argue that “any opposition is better than Abiy.” But a closer look at these articles and interviews reveals troubling truths: behind the rhetoric of “unity” lies a project that treats Oromo demands as illegitimate, dismisses Cushitic struggles, and seeks to restore northern elite dominance under a new cover.
Hostile Narratives Against the Oromo:
On June 29, 2025, in an interview with Ethiopian Insight, former diplomat Andargachew Gashaw bluntly stated:
“Ethiopia must not fall again into the Oromo trap. Federalism cannot be held hostage by Oromo dominance. If this convergence succeeds, Oromo control of the state must be cut back to save Ethiopia.”
This is not a call for partnership but for containment, a stark reminder that some northern voices see Oromo political participation as a “trap.”
Similarly, in an opinion piece published on Addis Standard (July 7, 2025), political analyst Fetlework Gebregziabher, a veteran Tigrayan commentator, wrote:
True federalism is impossible under Oromo dominance. Ethiopia’s unity depends on reducing Oromo leverage in national politics.”
Her words reveal a convergence built not on equality but on a fear of Oromo power, fear that drives exclusionary prescriptions.
Even more revealing, retired general Mamo Abate told The Reporter on July 20, 2025:
“The radicals in Oromia have hijacked the cause of the people. They use federalism as an excuse to dismantle Ethiopia. Once Abiy is gone, these radicals must be removed from political leadership.”
Once again, the target is not Abiy Ahmed himself, but Oromo political aspirations broadly defined as “radical” and “dangerous.”
A recent analysis on Borkena, titled “The Oromo Call for Convergence against Abiy and Its Bottleneck”, critiques this sort of unity, arguing that such convergence efforts may lack genuine inclusion and are already revealing key structural limitations.
Furthermore, an earlier piece by Worku Aberra on Borkena, “The Oromo Call for Unity,” underscores the tension within Oromo intellectual circles, some earlier called for unity against Abiy’s government, but that call remains contested and lacks a solid framework for federalist safeguards.
A Coalition Without Guarantees:
Across these narratives, the “convergence” against Abiy Ahmed is framed as a purely tactical move. Its backers provide no clarity on how Ethiopia’s constitutional order will be safeguarded, no guarantee that Oromo representation will remain secure, and no assurances that federalism will be respected.
The only unifying demand is simple: “Remove Abiy first.”
But Ethiopia’s history offers bitter lessons. Temporary alliances built on urgency alone, without guarantees, often collapse into elite pacts dominated by northern factions. Once the dust settles, southern and eastern voices, including the Oromo—are pushed aside. To endorse this path without safeguards is to repeat old mistakes.
Cushitic Alignment: A Strategic Alternative:
Instead of running into the arms of elites who openly dismiss them, Oromo leaders should look south and east. The Cushitic nations, Oromo, Somali, Afar, Sidama, and others, share a long history of marginalization. They also share a more recent history of political awakening and agency. Together, they represent Ethiopia’s largest demographic force and the historic shift Abiy Ahmed’s rise embodied.
The wiser course is to align with these Cushitic partners, open structured dialogue with the current Abiy-led government, submit concerns, and reshape policies where mistakes have been made, while preserving the historic power shift that broke Abyssinian monopoly.
This is not about blind loyalty to Abiy Ahmed. It is about protecting the hard-won principle that Ethiopia is no longer owned by a northern elite minority but belongs equally to all its nations.
The Bigger Picture: South and East at a Crossroads
The struggle of Ethiopia’s south and east, from Oromia to the Somali Region, from Sidama to Afar, has always been about breaking exclusion and affirming dignity. But this struggle is now being undermined by some Oromo elites who believe that validation must come from Tigrayan or Amhara circles. This is not only unwise, it is deeply unstrategic. Northern elites, whether Amhara or Tigrayan, have never demonstrated lasting respect for Oromo or Cushitic aspirations. Their current invitations to “convergence” are tactical, not genuine.
By chasing northern approval, these Oromo elites weaken not just their own position but the broader southern and eastern cause. They risk turning back the clock on the very shift that brought Ethiopia to a more inclusive political reality.
A related Borkena commentary, “Abiy’s Mirror: Affective Polarization and the Vicious Cycle of Dictatorship in Ethiopia,” discusses how polarization is being used as a tool to deepen divisions, rather than bridge them, an indication of how such alliances can reinforce exclusion rather than resolve it.
A Call to Return to Reality
It is time to be clear: the future of Ethiopia’s balance of power will not be decided in the salons of Addis Ababa’s northern elite, nor in recycled pacts of exclusion. It lies in the confidence, unity, and cooperation of the south and east.
The Oromo, Somali, Afar, Sidama, and other Cushitic nations must hold firm together. They must not abandon their shared front for fragile deals that only strengthen old dominance.
Those Oromo elites who are seeking northern validation must stop, reflect, and return to reality. The task is not to restore yesterday’s Ethiopia, but to secure the tomorrow of an Ethiopia that belongs to all its peoples.
History will not forgive a generation that squandered a power shift by running back into the arms of those who excluded them. It will, however, remember with honor the leaders who chose unity of the south and east over illusions of northern embrace.
References:
- Addis Standard. (July 7, 2025). Opinion piece by Fetlework Gebregziabher on federalism and Oromo dominance. Retrieved from https://addisstandard.com/
- Ethiopia Insight. (June 29, 2025). Interview with Andargachew Gashaw on Oromo dominance and federalism. Retrieved from https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/
- The Reporter Ethiopia. (July 20, 2025). Interview with retired General Mamo Abate on radicals in Oromia. Retrieved from https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/
- Mesay Mekonen. (August 18, 2025). The Oromo Call for Convergence against Abiy and Its Bottleneck. Borkena. Retrieved from https://borkena.com/2025/08/18/the-oromo-call-for-convergence-against-abiy-and-its-bottleneck/
- Worku Aberra. (August 5, 2025). Ethiopia: The Oromo Call for Unity. Borkena. Retrieved from https://borkena.com/2025/08/05/ethiopia-the-oromo-call-for-unity-worku-aberra/
- Borkena Editorial. (July 2, 2025). Abiy’s Mirror: Affective Polarization and the Vicious Cycle of Dictatorship in Ethiopia. Borkena. Retrieved from https://borkena.com/2025/07/02/abiys-mirror-affective-polarization-and-the-vicious-cycle-of-dictatorship-in-ethiopia/
Author: Abdirezak Sahane Elmi – Former Government Official & Political Analyst
Editor’s Note:
The views expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author. This piece does not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of HornCurrent.com, and its inclusion is for the purpose of fostering open debate and dialogue.
