By Abdi Abakor, Political Analyst
The Horn of Africa faces an existential threat—not from an external power, but from within its borders. That threat is Isaias Afwerki, President of Eritrea. For over three decades, Isaias has ruled Eritrea with absolute impunity, dismantling the state from within. But more dangerously, he has now turned his full attention to undermining peace and igniting chaos across the region, particularly in Ethiopia.
A Master of Deception and Regional Sabotage
Isaias Afwerki is not merely a ruthless authoritarian—he is a strategic warmonger, exploiting every crack in the Horn’s fragile political systems to advance his own survival. During the war in northern Ethiopia (2020–2022), Isaias pretended to ally with the Ethiopian federal government, presenting himself as a partner in the fight against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
But his real motive was revenge—not peace. His troops entered Tigray with full intent to commit atrocities, including ethnic cleansing, mass rape, the killing of civilians, and destruction of infrastructure. While the Ethiopian state sought to reclaim order, Isaias pursued total destruction of the Tigrayan society, targeting civilians with the aim of eliminating the region’s capacity to recover politically or economically.
Turning Against Ethiopia After Exploiting the Alliance
Now, in a shocking reversal, Isaias Afwerki has turned against the same federal government he once claimed to support. After exploiting the alliance to exact revenge on his long-time enemies in the TPLF, he is now fomenting a new war, allying once again with elements of the TPLF, the Fano Amhara militia, and other armed groups.
This new axis of instability seeks to:
- Undermine the federal government in Addis Ababa
- Destabilize the Ethiopian state from within
- Trigger ethnic conflict and regional fragmentation
These are not accidental alliances. They are carefully constructed to keep Ethiopia permanently weak, distracted, and divided—a strategic objective of Isaias Afwerki for years.
Ethnic Cleansing and War Crimes Cannot Be Forgotten
Isaias’s crimes during the Tigray war must not be swept under the carpet. His troops engaged in:
- Widespread ethnic cleansing in border areas and western Tigray
- Indiscriminate killings of civilians and religious leaders
- Looting of hospitals, schools, and humanitarian supplies
- Obstruction of humanitarian aid and starvation tactics
These are war crimes and crimes against humanity—and the architect is none other than the Eritrean president. The fact that he remains untouched by international justice is a stain on global conscience.
The Bigger Picture: A Regional Threat, Not Just an Eritrean Problem
Isaias Afwerki’s ambition is not confined to Eritrea. He is actively working to:
- Collapse Ethiopia from within
- Escalate Sudan’s civil war through clandestine support
- Weaken Somalia’s federal institutions
- Undermine African Union peace frameworks
He fears democracy. He despises multilateralism. And above all, he knows that his survival depends on permanent regional instability.
A Dictatorship That Must Be Contained
Eritrea under Isaias has no constitution, no elections, no press freedom, and no civil liberties. It is a state built on fear and militarism, exporting violence across borders. His regime must be treated not just as a dictatorship—but as a regional security threat.
The African Union, IGAD, and the international community must:
- Hold Isaias accountable for his crimes in Ethiopia and Eritrea
- Dismantle his influence over armed factions in the region
- Support the Eritrean people in their quest for liberation from tyranny
Conclusion: Isaias Is the Arsonist of the Horn
It is time to speak plainly: Isaias Afwerki is the single most destabilizing actor in the Horn of Africa. He has destroyed his country, betrayed every ally, and now seeks to ignite a new wave of wars to avoid his own political demise.
The people of the Horn deserve peace, stability, and freedom from endless bloodshed. That future cannot be built with Isaias at the table—it can only begin once he is removed from the equation.
Abdi Abakor is a Horn of Africa political analyst focused on authoritarianism, regional conflict, and peacebuilding. He writes from Addis Ababa.
